Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
